As the 2024 Major League Baseball season unfolds, the spotlight intensifies on two American League sluggers-Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees and Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners-both chasing a feat that has captivated fans for decades: breaking the single-season American League home run record. With Judge fresh off a historic campaign and Raleigh emerging as a formidable power hitter, questions abound about whether either can etch their name into the record books. CBS Sports takes a closer look at their performances, trajectories, and what it would take to topple a record held since 1961.
Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh Eyes on the American League Home Run Record
Aaron Judge has been a powerhouse in the batter’s box, showcasing a rare blend of power and consistency that places him firmly in the conversation for rewriting the American League home run record book. With his towering presence and discipline, Judge has already demonstrated his ability to maintain a staggering home run pace deep into the season. Meanwhile, Cal Raleigh has emerged as a surprising contender, leveraging his raw power and improving plate approach to challenge expectations and bring fresh energy to the chase.
Both sluggers bring distinct advantages to the competition:
- Judge’s experience and track record as a seasoned slugger translating into high launch angles and an ability to capitalize on pitchers’ mistakes.
- Raleigh’s upward trajectory characterized by aggressive at-bats and a knack for clutch situations that amplify his home run tally.
| Player | Home Runs (Current Season) | Projected Total | Key Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 45 | 60+ | Consistency & Experience |
| Cal Raleigh | 28 | 50+ | Power Surge & Confidence |
Analyzing Seasonal Performance Trends and Power Hitting Metrics
Both Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh have exhibited compelling upward trajectories in their seasonal power stats, signaling potential threats to the single-season American League home run record. Judge, coming off his historic 62-home run season, continues to showcase elite bat speed and plate discipline, maintaining a robust .310 batting average alongside his towering homers. Raleigh, meanwhile, has made impressive strides, with a notable increase in exit velocity and fly-ball rates, two critical metrics that correlate strongly with home run production. Their consistent ability to launch long balls in high-leverage situations highlights not just raw power, but refined timing and approach adjustments tailored to elite pitching.
When breaking down their key power-hitting metrics further, factors such as launch angle and hard-hit percentage offer insightful contrasts:
- Aaron Judge: Maintains an average launch angle near 24 degrees, optimizing the sweet spot for maximum carry.
- Cal Raleigh: Has elevated his hard-hit rate to 50%, reflecting improved contact quality year over year.
- Consistency: Judge’s at-bats per home run ratio still outpaces Raleigh’s, but Raleigh’s rapid development suggests a closing gap.
| Metric | Aaron Judge (2023) | Cal Raleigh (2023) |
|---|---|---|
| Home Runs | 62 | 35 |
| Exit Velocity (mph) | 95.3 | 92.8 |
| Launch Angle (degrees) | 24.1 | 22.7 |
| Hard-Hit % | 54.2% | 50.1% |
| At-Bats per HR | 10.5 | 15.3 |
Strategies and Conditions Needed to Break the Single-Season Home Run Mark
In the pursuit of shattering the single-season American League home run record, a combination of exceptional talent and the right circumstances is crucial. Both Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh would need to maintain peak physical condition to endure the rigors of a full 162-game schedule while consistently delivering power at the plate. Strategic adjustments, such as focusing on launch angle optimization and plate discipline, would allow these hitters to maximize their opportunities without sacrificing batting average. Supporting factors like lineup protection and favorable ballpark conditions similarly play pivotal roles, enabling players to capitalize on every at-bat.
Key strategies and conditions include:
- Consistent Plate Appearances: Staying healthy and avoiding slumps to maintain a high number of quality at-bats throughout the season.
- Pitch Recognition Skills: Identifying pitches early to selectively attack fastballs and avoid chasing off-speed offerings.
- Adaptability: Making real-time mechanical tweaks and mental adjustments to sustain power output against evolving pitching approaches.
- Home Ballpark Advantages: Leveraging hitter-friendly environments such as Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch or Seattle’s emerging power alleys.
| Factor | Aaron Judge | Cal Raleigh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Season HR Pace | ~45 HRs | ~30 HRs | ||||||
| Ballpark Influence | +8% HR boost | +5% HR boost | ||||||
| Factor | Aaron Judge | Cal Raleigh |
|---|---|---|
| Current Season HR Pace | ~45 HRs | ~30 HRs |
| Ballpark Influence | +8% HR boost | +5% HR boost |